THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This survey provides an updated review of the empirical literature on the regional effects of monetary policy in economic activity by means of undertaking a threefold perspective. First, the main methodological dimensions of this literature are examined while pinpointing those modelling or methodological traits that constitute a source of diverging estimates and thereby produce inconclusive evidence. Secondly, the estimates yielded by the literature are summarized by carrying out a cross‐study analysis of the results for each monetary union. By drawing on empirical regularities that are robust across studies, the conclusiveness of the results is assessed, while those monetary unions for which conclusive evidence is still lacking are also identified. Lastly, the sources of regional heterogeneity identified by these studies are reviewed in order to shed some light on the linkage between monetary policy and territorial heterogeneity. As a result of this threefold perspective, this survey delivers overall structured conclusions and updated policy‐relevant lessons. Moreover, various research gaps and emerging topics in the literature are also identified.     

The Feasibility of the Double‐Dividend Hypothesis in a Democratic Economy

The two dividends in the double‐dividend hypothesis are assumed to be independent. This assumption can be misleading when it comes to formulating policy. I construct a model where the pollution tax rate is voted for by heterogeneous people. In addition to the revenue‐recycling effect, the equilibrium pollution tax rate depends on two opposite forces: the tax‐cutting effect and the profit effect. The two forces show that an instrument that exploits a greater revenue‐recycling effect can cause a more severe environmental deterioration, thereby resulting in the infeasibility of the hypothesis. The introduction of the interdependence between the two dividends can also mean that non‐revenue‐raising instruments are more efficient than revenue‐raising instruments.     

Enhanced Special Drawing Rights: How China Could Contribute to a Reformed International Monetary Architecture

Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, the world has operated on a de facto system of free‐floating exchange rates, with the US dollar as the dominant international currency. The system, characterized by large pro‐cyclical capital flows and chronic imbalances, is inherently unstable, and has contributed to repeated crises, recessions and geopolitical tensions. One potentially “least‐difficult” line of reform would be to allow the evolution of a multi‐currency system, underpinned by an expanded role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Attempts to promote wider use of the SDR have foundered on the liquidity premium. However, for Chinese corporations and institutions, at present restricted in their capital account activities, the SDR liquidity premium would appear less daunting. The Chinese authorities could provide policy encouragement for the use of SDRs by their institutions. This initiative, supported by China's Special Administrative Region Hong Kong, would kick‐start an international SDR ecosystem, and encourage even broader use of SDRs, to the benefit of international monetary stability.     

金砖国家新开发银行环境和社会安全保障政策的创新性分析

为改善借款方的长期整体发展效果,金砖国家新开发银行对其环境和社会安全保障政策框架进行了大胆创新,着力推进借款方"本国体系"的使用和建设。传统多边开发银行的环境和社会安全保障政策往往采取施加于所有借款方国家法律之上"一刀切"的方式,但难以取得理想的发展效果,其主要原因有:无法影响非多边开发银行资助项目;条件过于僵化,导致部分借款方转而求助于其他融资选项;给借款方造成沉重的时间和费用负担。"本国体系"有效克服了上述难题,但也存在相应挑战。为应对挑战,未来金砖国家新开发银行推进借款国"本国体系"的努力方向是:为本国体系预设一个最低标准;逐步有序而非一步到位地推进本国体系;切实加大对借款方的技术援助。     

Excess corporate payouts and financial distress risk

Firms that follow excessive payout policies (over-payers) are higher on the financial distress spectrum and have lower survival rates than under-payers. In addition, over-payers endure lower future sales and asset growth than under-payers and experience negative abnormal returns in the bond and stock markets. Exogenous import tariff reductions and commodity price jumps reduce the likelihood of overpayment. We interpret this as evidence consistent with financial flexibility considerations, rather than risk-shifting, explaining the decision to overpay. We also find that CEO overconfidence and catering incentives affect overpayment.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Banks' environmental policy and business outcomes: The role of competition

By integrating the two areas of competition–performance and environment–performance, this research explores if competition matters in the relationship between environmental practices and interest margins in the market. A panel of 458 banks from 74 countries for the period of 2006–2016 is used, and the sample is further divided into developed and developing countries. This paper uses the system Generalized Method of Moments estimator to tackle potential omitted variable bias, endogeneity, and simultaneity issues. Without competition, environmental practices only affect banks in developing countries; however, the results show a significant impact for the full sample, including developed countries, when the competition is taken into consideration, suggesting that competition might play a role in the relationship of environmental practices and interest margins. In the full sample, competition impacts the relationship negatively after a moderate level of competition is reached in the market. The environmental practices in developing countries are prone to competition in the market. In developed countries, the competition is found to be lightly positively moderating the impact of environmental practices on interest margins. Based on these findings, it is recommended that developing countries should have a low or moderate level of competition to encourage environmental practices. For developed countries, however, high competition should be preferred to encourage banks to consider environmental practices as one of their core business strategies. These findings are found robust to different statistical estimators.     

新发展格局视野中的消费券发放问题与重构研究

2020年面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击,各地纷纷发放消费券刺激消费。本轮发放消费券的省市和规模远超以往。考察当前各地消费券的实践,其存在三方面的问题:短期刺激消费与构建发展新格局缺乏衔接、地方各自为政与顶层设计阙如、财政补贴与财政约束的张力。针对这些问题,本文从新发展格局视野提出将当前消费券重构为财政和金融融合的消费金融券,使之成为构建新发展格局中扩大内需的长期政策和重要的宏观调控工具。消费金融券的制度设计要与社会结构新特征和新趋势相契合。针对低收入群体的消费金融券,应以财政补贴为主、以重大生活项目消费的利息补贴与信用担保为辅。针对中等收入群体的消费金融券,应以利息补贴为主,通过消费金融的方式扩大消费。加大消费金融券的全国顶层设计,明确中央和地方财政支持产业的范围和力度。     

In Data We Trust? An Analysis of Indonesian Socioeconomic Survey Data

What if a popular dataset that has generated a large amount of literature has been misunderstood and has led to misleading inferences? This paper examines household expenditure data from the Indonesian National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas), which started more than 50 years ago. Appropriate use of Susenas data for policy analysis requires an understanding that the survey’s expenditure variable does not measure true out-of-pocket expenses, because it includes subsidies received by households when obtaining goods and services. We also highlight an abrupt change in the survey instrument that occurred in 2015, when the reference period for certain items was extended. For health items, this generated a change in the expenditure series that can be misinterpreted as being the result of a social health insurance reform introduced in 2014 to lower the health care burden on households. Accordingly, we propose a way to account for this artificial expenditure movement in Susenas.     

农民宅基地退出差异性受偿意愿及其影响因素分析

研究目的:宅基地退出工作能否顺利推进与退地补偿息息相关,研究宅基地退出中农民差异性受偿意愿及其影响因素,以服务决策。研究方法:基于重庆市890份农民实地调查数据,应用多元离散选择模型(Logit)进行定量研究。研究结果:(1)传统农区的农民更愿意选择货币补偿;城乡结合部(街道办)的农民更愿意选择安置补偿;农民修建补偿选择率总体偏低,区位差异并不明显;(2)农民货币受偿意愿影响因素主要包括受教育程度、家庭主要成员是否定居城镇、非农务工收入、新居住地适应性;(3)农民安置受偿意愿影响因素主要包括年龄、农房是否自住、退地补偿是否有截留、村基础设施状况;(4)农民修建受偿意愿影响因素主要包括农房造价、农房是否新建、退地补偿是否有截留;(5)影响农民受偿意愿的因素存在较大差异,同一因素可能对农民选择受偿意愿产生不同的影响,但没有一个自变量同时对三个因变量产生显著影响。研究结论:应针对农民受偿意愿差异及其影响因素,实行产异化的补偿措施,在经济发展相对滞后的传统地区,强化村落基础设施建设的同时,加大现金补偿力度。对于经济较为发达、区位条件较好的城乡结合部地区,应加大安置补偿力度,以保障退地农民的居住权。